I have no idea whether there is any prospect of success but this definitely goes into the ‘wouldn’t it be nice’ column:
An initiative to try ex president of the Spanish Government Jose Maria Aznar for his role in the invasion of Iraq will be promoted through assemblies in several Spanish cities … by a so-called Platform for a Trial against Aznar, which has been supported so far by over 1,500 important figures from Spain and abroad. (source)
In the US Congress, the House Foreign Affairs Committee is considering a resolution acknowledging the Armenian Holocaust as genocide. Given that this Holocaust happened around 90 years ago and in a different continent, one wouldn’t normally expect this to be a controversial issue.
But George Bush feels he has to urge Congress that this resolution is ‘not the right response to these historic mass killings’ because the resolution would do ‘great harm’ to US relations with Turkey.
I guess with Turkish troops poised on the border of Iraq this is a ‘very problematic’ moment to upset Turkey. But I guess that poor-old Dubah has just put his own foot in it: acknowledging the Holocaust as ‘historic mass killings’ will itself not play well in Ankara.
update 11/10/07: the resolution was passed by the House Foreign Affairs Committee by 27 votes to 21 and will now go to the full House of Representatives.
update 12/10/2007: Turkey is pissed referring to an ‘unacceptable decision’ which is ’not regarded by the Turkish people as valid or of any value’; the Turkish ambassador to the US has been recalled for consultations. This one is going to run and run.
Earlier this week El Pais published the transcript of a fascinating conversation between George Bush and José María Aznar from February 2003.
Now Juan Cole has got his dictionary out and published an English translation so we can all read how George Bush had run out of patience and planned to deliberately break international law.
Impeachment anyone?
A few days ago General Petraeus told Congress:
The most significant development in the past six months likely has been the emergence of tribes and local citizens rejecting al-Qaeda and other extremists. This has, of course, been most visible in Anbar. A year ago the province was assessed as ‘lost’ politically. Today, it is a model of what happens when local leaders and citizens decide to oppose al-Qaeda and reject its Taliban-like ideology.
Yesterday, a state of emergency was declared in al-Anbar and General Petraeus was talking about ‘a terrible loss for Anbar province and all of Iraq’ as Sheikh Abdul-Sattar Abu Risha (head of the Anbar Salvation Front, chief of counterterrorism in Anbar Province, and leader of the leader of the Al Bu Risha tribe) was killed — only ten days after he met George Bush.
update 15/09/2007: and despite George Bush’s claims of political progress the latest report from the White House admits that the Iraqi government has made progress on only two out of the 18 benchmarks in the last two months.
General Petraeus admitted to his troops last week that the surge ‘not worked out as we had hoped’. He went on to say that security conditions in Iraq have improved and that U.S. forces are ‘building momentum’; the problem remains the political process. There are a couple of problems with this story.
Firstly, creating ‘the space for Iraqi leaders to tackle the tough questions’ was not just ‘one of the justifications for the surge’: it was the point of the surge. If ‘national reconciliation’ does not begin during the surge, then what happens after?
Secondly, it is unclear, to say the least, to what extent security conditions have improved. There are two basic measures: US military casualties and Iraqi civilian casualties. Since the surge began, US military fatalities have been up on the same month last year in each and every month. On civilian deaths, McClatchy reports that they ‘haven’t decreased in any significant way across the country, according to statistics from the Iraqi Interior Ministry, and numbers gathered by McClatchy Newspapers show no consistent downward trend even in Baghdad, despite military assertions to the contrary.’ I guess, that what Iraqis think is also pretty important in assessing the results, but here too the news is not good: they are, literally, voting with their feet — according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees the number of refugees has risen from 50,000 to 60,000 a month. Meanwhile, a timely poll conducted for BBC, ABC and NKH asked if the ‘Surge’ had improved or worsened security, the pace of reconstruction, the conditions for political dialogue and the possibilities of economic development: ‘by large majorities in each case they said the situation had worsened.’ Not only that but ‘the number of people who want coalition forces to leave Iraq immediately has gone up sharply, from 35% earlier in the year to 47% now.’
Only in al-Anbar is there evidence of progress, and as that began with the formation of Anbar Salvation Council in September last year it is unclear to what extent the surge is responsible; and there’s the slight problem that while the Anbar Salvation Council is not fighting the US, neither is it supporting the Iraqi government.
It should be an interesting question and answer session in congress when Petraeus reports.
update 11/09/20007: House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Tom Lantos probably got it about right in response to General Petraeus’s report:
The current escalation in our military presence in Iraq may have produced some tactical successes. But strategically, the escalation has failed. We need to get out of Iraq, for that country’s sake and for our own. It is time to go.
General Petraeus may, or may not, convince anyone but the ’surge’ and his report have probably served their purpose: holding the line in the Senate — it needs 60 votes to force a withdawal — and thus saving George Bush from having to admit defeat on his watch.
Reuters reports that there has been another surge in Iraq: a surge in violence.
The data, obtained by Reuters from the US Defense Department, shows an upward trend in daily attacks over the past four months, surging to a peak of 177.8 average daily attacks in June (totalling 5,335 reported attacks against coalition troops, Iraqi security forces, civilians and infrastructure) – the highest daily average since May 2003.
Pentagon officials were not immediately available to comment on the statistics.
